The Sri Lankan team have arrived in England and although they are without one of their top batsman, Marvin Attapatu, they are still a decent Test Match side with a few outstanding performers. Muralitharan is a top class bowler, no matter what my opinion is of his action and Chaminda Vaas is a good seamer in whatever conditions he is presented with. The also have Sangakarra, who is an excellent wicket keeper and a very good Test batsmen.
However, truth be told, England should beat Sri Lanka and beat them fairly comfortably. They are ranked 7th in the Test Rankings and have a poor record away from home. Even with the injury situation that England currently has, there should be too much strength in reserve to allow Sri Lanka a sniff in the 3 match series, which starts on 11th May.
England will not have Vaughan, Harmison and Giles available for the 1st Test. However, they will have Trescothick back and ready for selection and also Simon Jones, as long as he doesn't break down again with an injury in the next 18 days. The selection discussions are going to primarily revolve around the batting positions and the two vacant bowling positions. Strauss, Trescothick and Pietersen will definitely be picked for 3 of the top 5 slots. That leaves two vacant batting positions; numbers 3 and 5. I believe that Pietersen should bat at 4 so that he and Flintoff, the team’s big hitters, are separated in the order, something I think is necessary. I am of the opinion that Collingwood was one of England’s best players on the winter tour and that he should definitely retain the number 4 slot. That leaves the position of number 3 available while Michael Vaughan is continuing his comeback from injury. So, with that in mind, who are the contenders?
Ian Bell
He had a poor Test series in India, albeit two of his six innings were batting as a makeshift opener which is not his natural position. He averaged only 21.83 in those 3 Tests and was guilty of getting himself out more often than not. He has a propensity to nibble at the ball outside off stump not only just early in his innings but later on as well when he looks set, which must be a concern for the England coaching staff. His average against Australia in the summer was just 17.50 and it could well be said that, his catching aside, England won The Ashes despite him being in the side. He had a good series in Pakistan, topping the averages but if you discount the series against Bangladesh, when he scored heavily, then his overall average is below 30. His demeanour at the crease is not convincing at all and he often looks like a rabbit in headlights when the pressure is on.
Alistair Cook
Got flown in as a last minute replacement when Trescothick went home in India. Hit 67 and an unbeaten century in the 1st Test although he subsequently failed in the second. He looks to have the technique to succeed at Test level and his temperament looks unflappable. He also scored 214 against the touring Australians last summer and has started this county season like an exocet, scoring 88 and 103* in the first county match of the season for Essex. However, he does lack Test Match experience and is only just 21.
Owais Shah
He was brought in for the last Test against India and scored a very composed and almost slightly cocky 88. He might well have had a century if he didn't have to try and force the pace whilst batting with the tail in the 1st Innings. He also scored a composed 34 in the 2nd innings when there was no shortage of chaos around him. He is the oldest of the three contenders for the batting slot at the age of 27. However, he was unconvincing in the one day matches after the Test Matches and is not renowned for his fielding ability.
There are two issues at stake here; the first is who will the selectors go with and the second is who do I think they should go with? I believe the selectors will stick with Ian Bell which, while admirable in terms of continuity of selection, I believe to be a fundamental mistake. I don't think that, right now, he has the mental toughness to play Test Cricket against the top teams. He doesn't dominate the crease or exude that aura of calm like the best players do. That, for me, is the key difference between him and the other two contenders. I think, given some time, he will turn into a good Test player but he needs to toughen up a bit first. When playing Australia in the winter, it is crucial that we have our mentally toughest cricketers playing.
So, that leaves the choice for me between Shah and Cook. Shah played very well in the Test match but has not shown much since, either in the one day matches or at the start of this county season. Cook, on the other hand, has shown plenty of form early season and is already being marked as an FEC (Future England Captain). Is now too soon? Also, if he was picked, he'd be playing out of position at 3 and this is where I think Shah currently has the edge on him.
Right now, my choice at number 3 will be Owais Shah.
So, the batting line up is now Strauss, Trescothick, Shah, Collingwood, Pietersen, Flintoff, Jones. What bowlers do we go with? Who are 8 to 11? Well, Hoggard, Simon Jones and with Harmison out, Jimmy Anderson are the pace bowling options, which then leaves the number 8 slot to be filled. I don't believe Duncan Fletcher will pick Monty Panesar as the spinning solution due to the fragility it gives the lower order. Therefore we either go with another seamer that can bat, like Liam Plunkett or a spinner that can bat, like Shaun Udal. I believe it will go to Udal to add some variety to the attack. It is by no means a long term option as Udal is 37 and it’s certainly not looking a forward looking move but Fletcher is hoping that Giles will be more than fit for The Ashes in November so, for the here and now, Udal is a good stop-gap measure.
I think it will be Udal, Hoggard, Jones and Anderson completing the line up for the 1st Test.
We shall see how correct I am in the next week or so.